Thoughts On COVID-19 – Where We Are Now and Returning To Normal

September 9th, 2020

By Dr. Scot Goldberg

Thoughts On COVID-19

I have some thoughts on COVID-19 that I’d like to share today on September 9th, 2020.  We see, hear, and read many stories in the news about the numbers and the trends for cases of the coronavirus.  There are many ways to slice and dice this data but one of the distinctions I feel is important is the difference between “Cases confirmed” and “tested positive”.  They are not the same thing as currently the false positive rate (~5%) is actually higher than the true positive rate (~3%).  This would mean if you test positive you are actually more likely to NOT have contracted COVID than you are.

There also is a very high false negative rate (a recent JAMA article puts it at >20%), which to me suggests that all this testing just adds to all the confusion and angst and does little to select and quarantine those infected, especially in asymptomatic individuals.  Also, when I survey my hospital contacts I hear few if any new cases entering the emergency room.  Certainly we don’t have the over-burdening of precious resources, such as ICU beds or ventilators that we had at the height of the pandemic in April.   So while good hygiene such as keeping hands clean is always important and in these pandemic times following guidelines such as isolating the vulnerable, social distancing and wearing masks is also a good idea, it appears that the worst of the pandemic has left, much as it did after 6 weeks in 1918 and it is time to start returning to normal.

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South Macomb Internal Medicine

28401 Hoover Rd.  Warren, Michigan 48093

Phone: (586) 276-7530

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